The European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, and the EU High Representative, Kaja Kallas, are expected to present the first-ever white paper on the Future of European defense within the first 100 days of their mandate. At the institutional level, the European Parliament has raised one of the strongest voices demanding a new framework for the “European Defense Union.”

A non-binding resolution adopted in November 2016 failed to lead to new guidelines but paved the way for the adoption in 2021 of the first version of the Strategic Compass. This action plan provides a common framework to assess the strategic context and the threats the EU faces. Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine in 2022 and the Versailles Summit gave new impetus to the Union of Defense project. On that occasion, EU leaders agreed to substantially increase defense spending, develop further incentives to stimulate collaborative investments and take measures to strengthen the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB).

It was along these lines that the European Commission later in July proposed a regulation establishing the European Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) and, in May 2023, a regulation aiming at supporting and accelerating an immediate ramp-up of production capacity of ammunition and missiles in the EU (ASAP). Those legal acts were later followed by the adoption in March 2024 of a European defense industrial strategy (EDIS), which aims to enhance the EU industrial capacity and regulation for a European defense industry program (EDIP) endowed with 1.5 billion worth of financial allocation.

Work on this last regulation has stalled in the Council due to Germany’s objection to applying ammunition exceptions to provisions restricting the purchase of military products whose extra-EU components exceed 35% of their final value.

The European Parliament is expected to start work in a recently upgraded full-fledged committee on Security and Defense in January 2025. The European Commission’s goal is to have an agreement on a final text by the end of the first half of 2025.

Short- and long-term perspectives

The white paper is expected to address the issues of defense sector capability, industrial competitiveness, and investment needs. It should also frame the overall approach to EU defense integration to strengthen the EU’s ability to respond to threats. As recently stated by Commissioner Kubilius, it will also include short-term and long-term plans and objectives. The white paper will first look at what the EU needs to do during the next five years to deter possible Russian aggression against the Member States of the European Union or NATO.

In a long-term perspective, as Kubilius states, the EU has to prepare itself for a potentially diminishing role of the United States in European Defence and an increase of China as a military superpower.

Some options are expected to be drawn from the recent reports by former Italian Prime Ministers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta on competitiveness and the Future of the single market, respectively, as well as from former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö’s report on civil and defense preparedness and readiness, which was presented to the College of Commissioners on 30 October.

The timing of the white paper may coincide with a review of the Strategic Compass threat analysis, with a view to the High Representative possibly presenting proposals for a revision of the Compass itself.

The majority of Compass’s actions, spanning operations, industry, resilience, and partnerships, are due for completion by 2025. Considering the High Representative’s announcement on the need for a new threat analysis, it is possible that the EU Commission will probably consider adopting new concrete ways to strengthen the level of ambition in the field of security and defense.

The white paper would likely entail an initiative spanning from identifying the most urgent and critical capability gaps to determining the way forward on “European projects of common interest” to considering favorable loan options, such as a special credit line from the European Stability Mechanism, as was the case during the pandemic in 2020.

A source said the European Commission is likely to present the document in March 2025 after collecting inputs from stakeholders at four important events on the Future of industry.