NATO: changing of the guard at summit from Stoltenberg to Rutte, Ukraine remains priority

From a laborer to a liberal, but at NATO, the difference is not even noticeable because there is only one political line that matters: Atlanticism. In this, Jens Stoltenberg, the former Norwegian premier, who has been secretary general of the Atlantic Alliance for ten years, and Mark Rutte, his successor, the former Dutch premier, are in absolute continuity and agreement.

For Stoltenberg, it has been ten years punctuated by the resurgence of the war on terror, no longer against al Qaeda, but against Isis; by the mission in Afghanistan – ingloriously ended – by Donald Trump‘s bumpy four-year term in the White House; by the tensions with Russia that culminated in the invasion of Ukraine and triggered an unexpected enlargement of NATO, with the accession of Sweden and Finland; and finally, by the war between Israel and Hamas, which is setting the entire Middle East ablaze.

The handover to Rutte, which was decided long ago and sanctioned at the Alliance Summit in Washington in July, comes at a time of extreme international tension, with open conflicts whose denouement is not in sight, and of major Atlantic questions: the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election will tell whether the U.S. and European countries can pursue their alliance without too many jolts – in the case of a Kamala Harris victory – or whether they will have to metaphorically “fasten their seat belts,” in the case of a Donald Trump victory.

Rutte is the fourth Dutch NATO secretary general – Britain has had three, Belgium two – after record-breaking Joseph Luns, who led the alliance for 13 years from 1971 to 1984, passing through four U.S. presidents Dirk Stikker and Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. Stoltenberg leaves with a length of service second only to Luns’s, exactly ten years and three U.S. presidents.

For as long as Stoltenberg has been at NATO, Rutte has been Dutch premier: almost 14 years of uninterrupted service, from fall 2010 to summer 2024, “piloting” his country out of the 2008-’09 crisis, through the season of fundamentalist terrorist attacks, in and out of the pandemic, with positions that were not always orthodox in Europe-the Netherlands was and is the “frugal” country par excellence, the most reluctant to widen the purse strings-but always pro-NATO.

The quasi-generational changeover between Stoltenberg, 65, and Rutte, 57, takes place without fanfare because, for the security of NATO countries and the world, there is more to fear than to celebrate. On the occasion, however, Stoltenberg offered the allied governments and his successor five “keys” to a successful and — it is the hope — concordant future.

“The first lesson is that our security is not free: we must be prepared to pay the price of peace,” he says, pointing out that going forward allies will have to spend well over 2 percent of GDP, the current commitment, on defense.

The second lesson is that “freedom is more valuable than free trade”-seen with Russian gas and now with China. “We must better protect critical infrastructure,” says the outgoing secretary, ”avoid exporting technologies that can be used against us and reduce our dependence on critical materials from strategic competitors.

The third lesson is that “military force is a prerequisite for dialogue, as the war in Ukraine clearly demonstrates.” Basically, the ancient wisdom: if you want peace, prepare for war. “I don’t think we can change President Putin’s mind about a free and independent Ukraine, but I think we can change his calculations. By giving Ukraine more weapons, we can make the Moscow regime understand that it cannot win on the battlefield and that the only option is to come to the negotiating table,” Stoltenberg explains.

The fourth lesson is that “military power has its limits”: “Afghanistan is an example. We may still have to intervene militarily beyond our borders. But any operation must have clearly defined objectives: we must be clear about what NATO’s military capability can – and cannot – achieve.”

The last lesson is extremely topical. “We must never take the link between Europe and North America for granted. On both sides of the Atlantic, we must recognize the value of the Alliance and invest in it. Europeans must understand that without NATO, there is no security in Europe.”

Words that carry weight in the handover to Rutte. On him the choice fell partly because he has already dealt with Trump, should he be the next president of the United States, and he did quite well. His inauguration was greeted with hope in Kiev – “Let us work together to bring Ukraine into NATO,” President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote to him – and with detachment in Moscow – “Nothing changes.”

We don’t know if Rutte will cycle to work in Brussels, as he did in The Hague. But his first messages are clear and concrete: we need to be strong and, to do that, we need investment; spending more on defense is difficult for some, but it is necessary; Ukraine remains a priority, but on the use of weapons each country decides for those it provides. Trump? “He doesn’t scare me.” Congratulations are pouring in, from Washington and Berlin, London and Rome: on the first day, it’s always like that.