Great disaffection brings Bulgarian voters to polls for the seventh snap election in a row

Bulgarian voters will cast their ballots on Sunday, 27 October, in an attempt to root the country out of an over three-year-long political crisis. An overall number of 240 members of the National Assembly will be elected by open list and proportionally represented based on the vote in 31 multi-member constituencies.

The main opinion polls estimated that Boyko Borissov‘s coalition between GERB and SDS (Union Democratic Forces) is likely to come in first, with a projection of 25% —26%. Nevertheless, the former prime minister and his EPP-affiliated party will struggle to form a stable government.

The second place is contested by the pro-European liberal electoral coalition “We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria” (PP), which is respectively affiliated at the European level to the Renew Europe group and the EPP and the pro-Russian radical party and anti-LGBT+ Revival. This latest support is the newly constituted group of the Europe Sovereign Nations. Both of them are estimated to record a support of close to 15%.

After Sunday’s vote, Bulgarian political observers believe Revival’s power in coalition building could be unprecedented. Only three years ago, in 2021, the Revival party exceeded the 4% barrier required to gain seats and enter the Sofia parliament. With 14.2% of the vote, it is now ranked third in these elections and may even finish second.

This is likely a more likely scenario after the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), which lobbies for ethnic minority’s sake, recently split into two parties. The first one is headed by Ahmed Dogan, the ALDE-backed founder of the party. His new coalition, “Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, “is polling between 8-9%. The other part of the DPS is controlled by the US-sanctioned Bulgarian businessman, politician, and former media tycoon Delyan Peevski, who has 7% support.

The left-wing coalition – consisting of the Socialists, The Left and StandUp – is far from having a solid specific weight in forming a new government due to the low percentage consensus, close to 9%, that opinion polls are attributing. The populist “There is such a people” – a party that now seats in the European Conservative and Reformists family in the European Parliament—has downsized its political consensus over the years and is now polling at approximately 6%.

With apathy threatening to be the big election winner, Bulgaria is set to experience long months of political consultations to find a broad-based agreement to govern the country.

One of the most pressing issues leaders of the major parties will have to address is the citizens’ discontent, with no light at the end of the tunnel of early elections for more than three years. In April 2021, turnout stood at 50.6%, while in June 2024, it plummeted to 34.4%. Voters will now be asked to go to the polls for the seventh early election in three-and-a-half years. Mass anti-corruption protests in 2020 toppled a coalition government led by the centre-right GERB party.

Since then, several elections have led to unstable coalitions by multiple centrist and right-wing parties. The last one seemed to shed light on political instability, with GERB and “We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria” committed to alternate the office of prime minister and vice-premier over 18 months of government. Disagreement in government posts led to the deal’s failure and prevented GERB’s Maria Gabriel from taking over his colleague Nikolaj Denkov’s top role.

This turned into new snap elections on 9 June following an inconclusive consultation round.