G20’s Uphill Samba in Brazil

It is tiring to dance the samba uphill. This is the feeling conveyed by the immediate eve of the G20 summit in Brazil, entitled “Building a just world and a sustainable planet”. The negative sentiment is driven by several economic factors, chief among them the escalating conflict in Ukraine. Just yesterday the largest Russian missile attack against Ukrainian energy infrastructure occurred. With winter now upon us, Kyiv has been forced to reinstate planned power outages in many areas. This attack was followed by US President Joe Biden’s green light for Ukrainian use of long-range missiles. In other words, an escalation.

The weight of the G20 should be incisive by definition, representing about 90 percent of the world’s GDP, 80 percent of global trade and two-thirds of the earth’s population. Yet, great difficulties in maneuvering emerge.

Brics effect

G20 Sherpas are still seeking a common position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to be included in the summit’s final declaration. For host Ignácio Lula, the main difficulty is mediating among member countries whose interests appear to be less and less overlapping.

The reality is that the rift is widening between countries in the Western sphere of influence (US and EU) and the BRICS, recently joined by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, increasing the bloc’s global specific weight. The internal division of the G20 into two factions now appears inevitable. The real issue animating the confrontation is the enlargement (or revitalization?) of the UN Security Council, a goal that seems rather distant now.

US and EU in pit-stop phase

The US and EU are in a pit-stop phase. The new Trump administration is still under construction and still needs to be ready to impact in a sensitive forum like the G20, where the news of the day (Biden’s authorization of long-range missiles for Ukraine) still bears his signature.

The European Union is also in a similar situation: the Von der Leyen 2 European Commission is still being formed, with crossed vetoes on the names of the commissioners-designate, Ribeiro and Fitto. The situation is further complicated by German Chancellor Scholz’s phone call with Vladimir Putin, which inevitably raised concerns among several European partners.

Italy’s role at the summit

G7 rotating president Giorgia Meloni is taking advantage of the G20 summit for strategic bilateral meetings with Brazil and Argentina in her first official trip to South America as premier.

Yesterday’s bilateral meeting with President Lula included discussions on a new Action Plan of the Italy-Brazil Strategic Partnership 2025-2030, which focuses on increasing trade and the energy and infrastructure sectors. Meloni will also have a bilateral meeting with newly appointed Argentine President Javier Milei, who will, in turn, meet with Xi Jinping ahead of a controversial official visit to Beijing scheduled for 2025.

Samba is uphill, even for him.