France: Fall of the Barnier government – What are the consequences? What are the solutions to get out of the crisis?

On Wednesday December 4, 331 NFP and RN MPs voted in favor of the NFP’s motion of no confidence in Michel Barnier‘s government. France is entering a period of unprecedented political uncertainty.

On Monday December 2, Michel Barnier activated Article 49.3 of the French Constitution on the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS). Two days later, he became the first head of government in the Fifth Republic to be toppled by a motion of censure, just two months and twenty-nine days after his appointment.

What are the consequences of adopting this motion of censure?

The first consequence is the fall of the government. According to Article 50 of the Constitution, when the National Assembly adopts a motion of censure, the Prime Minister “must” tender his resignation to the President of the Republic. President Emmanuel Macron will address the French people on Thursday evening.

As for the future of the texts currently being debated by Parliament, especially the PLF, the chances of Parliament adopting a budget for 2025 are slim: deadlines are too tight for a new draft prepared by the next government to be examined by the National Assembly and Senate before December 31. In the absence of a budget voted and promulgated by the end of the year, the new government could request “urgent authorization from Parliament to collect taxes and by decree the credits relating to voted services”, as provided for in article 47 of the Constitution. This special law (the details of which are set out in article 45 of the LOLF) would make it possible to provisionally renew for 2025 the expenditure and revenue of the 2024 budget. Recourse to this special law is highly restricted.

What are the solutions to the crisis?

Theoretically, the President of the Republic has the power to appoint the person of his choice to Matignon. Emmanuel Macron would have every constitutional right to reappoint Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. He is under no legal obligation to choose a member of the largest group in the National Assembly. Several names are in circulation, but the reliability of these hypotheses must be examined in the light of the threat of censure voted jointly by the NFP and the RN.

Another hypothesis is the appointment of a “technical” government, which could be the way out. A solution already familiar in Italy, this involves appointing ministers with no party affiliation to manage current affairs and implement certain reforms.

As far as current affairs are concerned, when a Prime Minister resigns but his successor has not yet been appointed, he and his ministers remain in office temporarily to manage current affairs, i.e. to ensure the continuity of the State and its services, and therefore the essential day-to-day running of the administrations under their responsibility.

As for the possibility of a return to the ballot box, this is out of the question for the time being. Article 12 of the Constitution prohibits “a new dissolution in the year following” the previous ballot. The National Assembly elected in July 2024 is therefore expected to sit until at least next summer.