EU leaders dither on security guarantees for Ukraine opting for a “transitional” Summit

European leaders postponed until a later date the discussion on so-called security guarantees for Ukraine, namely the conditions that the Kyiv government needs to reach if seated to a possible future peace table in the certainty that it has preserved the territorial integrity of the parts of the country under its control.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that the European Council discussion last Thursday had no landing zone. “We agree with the Ukrainian President that the third and fourth steps should not be taken before the first,” the German Chancellor said at the end of the high-level meeting. The question of how a security architecture can be structured in concrete terms after a peace agreement is not something that can be discussed sensibly at the moment and must be based on a structured discussion, also from a transatlantic perspective,” he said. It is no coincidence that a diplomat labeled this last EU leaders summit of the year as a “transitional” one.

In his address to the 27 European leaders, president Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine’s strong position at the negotiating table with Russia in the future would depend on explicit security guarantees. “We want an end to the war, we want peace, but we need security guarantees that will help us protect ourselves tomorrow”, he said. “But what Europe can offer ‘will not be enough” he further added in a press conference stating that “the real guarantee is NATO, which depends on the decisions of Europeans and Americans”.

The impression in Brussels is that the debate will only begin after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in the White House and begins to demonstrate the extent of his commitment to supporting Ukraine. “Next year, there will be a new president; we will have to have some strategic patience,” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

The latest European Council will be remembered as the most talked-about peace meeting since the start of the war in February 2022. Leaders are avoiding discussing details for the time being, although press rumors have revealed a proposal made during a meeting in Warsaw between Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron for a plan to send 40,000 peacekeepers from European countries to Ukraine once the war is over. For now, however, the EU is limiting itself to reiterating one principle: no negotiations on Ukraine should be held without the engagement of Ukraine itself.

Automotive gets a red-hot topic

At the meeting, Germany and the Czech Republic cited the need to avoid a first wave of fines for carmakers that fail to comply with new rules on light vehicle emissions. The rules will see the first stricter average emissions limits for new cars put on the market come into force in the next 12 months: manufacturers who exceed the 94 g/km limit for new sales will be fined €95 per g/km of excess carbon dioxide emitted, multiplied by the number of cars sold in the year.

The aim is to stop registering vehicles with internal combustion engines from 2035. The penalty system is designed to discourage and “collapse any possibility of investment,” Italian Enterprise Minister Adolfo Urso told at the last EU Competitiveness Council.

“In the difficult situation in which the automotive industry finds itself in many parts of the world, but especially in Europe, it makes no sense to burden it now with further fines for failing to achieve results next year,” Chancellor Scholz told journalists before the EU summit. Germany proposed “a common financing concept for all European countries”. The debate on the issue will be taken up at the European Council in March 2025, when heads of state and government will discuss the results of the strategic dialogue ready to be launched next January involving European car companies, infrastructure providers, trade unions, and business associations, as well as other stakeholders.

“It is very important that no labor decision is made without involving workers and companies and integrating their deep knowledge into the decision-making processes,” Scholz told a press conference. He was convinced that all his counterparts “are trying to avoid fines after the 2025 deadline.”

Sitting on the fence

The chapter of the final text of non-binding conclusions devoted to the situation in Syria states that ‘the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria within secure borders should be fully respected.’ This reference is a message to Israel and especially Turkey not to take advantage of the political transition after Assad’s fall to grab disputed territories.

All parties are called upon to “preserve national unity and ensure the protection of all civilians, the provision of public services and the creation of conditions for an inclusive and peaceful political transition and for the safe, voluntary and dignified return of Syrian refugees.”

For now, the EU is waiting to assess the actions of the new leadership led by the Tahrir al-Sham group. “It is too early to say whether the new leadership in Syria will be able to deliver what it has promised, whether territorial integrity will be preserved, national unity maintained and minorities protected,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Europe, she promised at the press conference, “will do its part to support Syria in this critical phase.”